Lagos Named Africa’s Most Heat-Risked City, 9th Worldwide in Oxford Study 2026

Key Points

• Lagos ranks as the 9th most heat-risked city globally and Africa’s most exposed city to heat risk, according to a new University of Oxford study published in 2026
• The research analysed 205 global cities with populations exceeding one million to determine heat vulnerability
• Al Basrah in Iraq topped the list as the world’s most heat-vulnerable city, followed by Ahmedabad (India), Bamako (Mali), Nagpur (India), Quezon City (Philippines), Baghdad (Iraq), Madurai (India), Faisalabad (Pakistan), Lagos (Nigeria), and Hyderabad (Pakistan)
• The study’s composite risk score considers three major components: hazard exposure, vulnerability, and lack of coping capacity
• More than 95% of the most at-risk cities are concentrated in South and Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa
• Lead author Nethmi Jayaratne Kariyawasam is a DPhil researcher at Oxford’s Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment
• The research was published in the journal “Sustainable Cities and Society” as a preprint titled “Moving Beyond Exposure: A Globally Comparable Framework for Heat Risk Assessment in Cities”
• Over 37 million people are at risk across the top heat-risked cities identified in the study
• India, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ghana host the largest number of cities with highest heat risk scores
• Lagos has an estimated population of over 21 million residents experiencing significant heat exposure

Oxford (Oxford Daily)June 12, 2026 – A groundbreaking new study by researchers at the University of Oxford has ranked Lagos as the ninth most heat-risked city in the world and the most exposed in Africa, marking a critical warning for the Nigerian megacity’s growing climate vulnerability.

As reported by Nethmi Jayaratne Kariyawasam, lead author of the study and DPhil researcher at Oxford’s Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, “extreme heat becomes particularly dangerous when it coincides with high levels of social vulnerability and inadequate coping mechanisms”. The research, published in the journal Sustainable Cities and Society, assessed 205 cities with populations exceeding one million to identify where residents face the greatest risks from rising temperatures.

The study’s findings place Al Basrah in Iraq at the top of the global heat-risk list, followed by Ahmedabad, Bamako, Nagpur, Quezon City, Baghdad, Madurai, Faisalabad, Lagos, and Hyderabad in the top ten. According to the composite risk score devised by the researchers, Ahmedabad scored 0.79, compared with the highest score of 0.83 for Al Basrah in Iraq.

How Did Researchers Measure Heat Risk Across 205 Global Cities?

Researchers at the University of Oxford mapped heat risk globally in cities with populations of more than one million across three major components: hazard exposure, vulnerability, and lack of coping capacity. The study took into account factors beyond temperatures and humidity, expanding the analysis using data on population age, access to air conditioning, tree cover, electricity prices, and poverty.

As reported by Jesus Lizana and Radhika Khosla, co-authors of the study titled “Moving Beyond Exposure: A Globally Comparable Framework for Heat Risk Assessment in Cities,” the analysis established a core set of risk indicators to allow for consistent comparisons across cities. The research does not provide a comprehensive account of all factors that influence urban heat risk but rather establishes standardized metrics for comparison.

Radhika Khosla, Associate Professor at the Oxford Smith School and leader of the Oxford Martin School Future of Cooling Programme, stated in related Oxford research that “overshooting 1.5°C of warming will have an unprecedented impact on everything from education and health to migration and farming”.

Which Cities Rank in the Top 10 for Global Heat Risk?

The top 10 most heat-risked cities globally include one Iraqi city (Basra), two Indian cities (Ahmedabad and Nagpur), two Pakistani cities (Faisalabad and Hyderabad), four African cities (Bamako in Mali, Lagos, and Kano in Nigeria, and Conakry in Guinea), and Barranquilla in Colombia.

According to UNI News as reported on June 4, 2026, “Ahmedabad, Nagpur, and Madurai in India are among the list of top-ten cities in the world that are most vulnerable to heat”. The Times of India reported that Ahmedabad ranked 2nd after the Iraqi city, with a composite risk score of 0.79—high among Indian cities.

New Indian Express reported on June 4, 2026 that “New research from the University of Oxford has identified 14 cities in India among the world’s top 50 facing significant heat risk, with Nagpur and Madurai ranking in the top 10”.

Why Are More Than 95% of At-Risk Cities Concentrated in Asia and Africa?

The analysis indicated that more than 95% of the most at-risk cities are in South and Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. As reported by Mail Guardian on June 8, 2026, “Oxford study finds world’s highest heat-risk cities concentrated in Asia and Africa”.

India, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ghana are home to the largest number of cities with high-risk scores. Carbon Copy reported on June 5, 2026 that “A new report by the University of Oxford found that India, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ghana host the largest number of cities with highest heat risk”.

In total, there are more than 37 million people at risk across these top heat-risked cities. African megacities like Lagos, Nigeria (with 21 million residents) and Cairo, Egypt (with 10 million residents) are experiencing significant heat exposure.

What Specific Factors Make Lagos Particularly Vulnerable to Heat?

Lagos State was found to be one of the most flood-prone and climate-vulnerable states in Nigeria, given its geography, rapid urbanization and high population density. The coastal megacity of Lagos has an estimated population of over 22 million residents.

Megacities such as Lagos face significant challenges due to rapid urbanization and climate change, resulting in a higher intensity of the urban heat island effect, coupled with high population density. Research published in November 2025 revealed that “the impacts of global climate change and global warming are most prominent in tropical African cities due to high levels of vulnerability”.

The intra-urban analysis of heat stress in Lagos showed a generally high incidence of intense discomfort in highly urbanized areas, with the most socioeconomically disadvantaged urban areas most affected, experiencing ‘hot’ heat stress conditions observed over 90% of the time.

How Will Lagos’ Heat Risk Ranking Impact the City’s 21 Million Residents?

The heat risk ranking presents immediate and long-term challenges for Lagos’ population. As reported by Mail Guardian, African megacities like Lagos with 21 million residents are experiencing significant heat exposure that threatens public health, economic productivity, and urban infrastructure.

Previous research has warned that Lagos is intensifying its own climate vulnerability through aggressive sand filling, endless dredging for estates and artificial islands, destruction of natural drainage systems, removal of wetlands and coastal vegetation, and overburdening a lagoon system already under extreme stress. SocioAfrica warned in December 2025 that “2026 could bring unprecedented flooding to Nigeria, with Lagos at the heart of the crisis”.

Background: The Oxford Smith School Heat Risk Study Development

The study

“Moving Beyond Exposure: A Globally Comparable Framework for Heat Risk Assessment in Cities”

was authored by Nethmi Jayaratne Kariyawasam (lead author), Jesus Lizana, and Radhika Khosla. It was recently put online as a preprint for the journal Sustainable Cities and Society.

The Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford conducted this research as part of their broader climate vulnerability assessment program. The research analysed 205 global cities to determine where people are most at risk from rising global temperatures.

Radhika Khosla, co-author and Associate Professor at the Oxford Smith School, leads the Oxford Martin School Future of Cooling Programme, which focuses on climate resilience and cooling strategies.

Prediction: How This Heat Risk Development Will Affect Lagos Residents and African Megacities

This development will significantly affect Lagos’ 21 million residents in multiple critical ways. First, public health systems will face increased pressure from heat-related illnesses, particularly among vulnerable populations including the elderly, children, and those with pre-existing conditions. The study’s finding that extreme heat becomes dangerous when coinciding with high social vulnerability means that Lagos’ poorest communities will experience the most severe impacts.

Second, economic productivity will decline as extreme heat reduces worker output, particularly in outdoor industries and sectors without adequate cooling infrastructure. Given that Lagos scores high on vulnerability and lacks coping capacity, businesses will need to invest significantly in cooling systems, potentially increasing operational costs and affecting employment.

Third, urban infrastructure will require substantial adaptation. The city’s existing power grid may struggle to meet increased demand for air conditioning and cooling, while electricity prices already a factor in the heat risk assessmentcould rise further. This creates a cyclical problem where those least able to afford cooling face the highest heat risks.

Fourth, the ranking will influence international climate funding and policy attention. Lagos’ position as Africa’s most heat-risked city may attract climate adaptation investment, but only if Nigerian authorities prioritize heat resilience in urban planning. The study’s emphasis on tree cover as a risk factor suggests that Lagos must accelerate green infrastructure development.

For other African megacities like Cairo, Bamako, and Kano, this development signals that heat risk will become a defining challenge for urban Africa. Without coordinated action on cooling infrastructure, urban planning, and social vulnerability reduction, these cities face similar trajectories. The concentration of 95% of at-risk cities in Asia and Africa means that global climate finance must prioritize these regions to prevent catastrophic human impacts.

The finding that 37 million people are at risk across top heat-risked cities underscores that this is not an isolated Lagos problem but a regional crisis requiring pan-African cooperation on heat resilience strategies, early warning systems, and adaptive urban design.